Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Koscheck
Mike Pierce
41%
59%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
18-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Koscheck: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Pierce: 41 sig / 1 TD
Josh Koscheck
Mike Pierce
26
Sig strikes landed
32
69
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
179s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Koscheck
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Pierce
18-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—