Back to UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Prelims2 Welterweight

Dan Stittgen vs Stephen Thompson

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dan Stittgen
Stephen Thompson
49% 51%
Why
31
Age
Δ 2y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stittgen: 8 sig / 0 TD · Thompson: 22 sig / 0 TD
Dan Stittgen
Stephen Thompson
37
Sig strikes landed
39
77
Sig strikes attempted
81
50
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Dan Stittgen

"The Anvil"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Stephen Thompson

"Wonderboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29