Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Lavar Johnson
48%
52%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
82"
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Beltran: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 65 sig / 0 TD
Joey Beltran
Lavar Johnson
52
Sig strikes landed
64
115
Sig strikes attempted
128
76
Total strikes landed
73
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
17-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35