Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Shane Roller
70%
30%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 7y
32
25-21
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-8
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Roller: 56 sig / 1 TD
Michael Johnson
Shane Roller
35
Sig strikes landed
23
76
Sig strikes attempted
57
50
Total strikes landed
42
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
118s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
L2
Shane Roller
11-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—