Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Camozzi
Dustin Jacoby
56%
44%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
25
Age
Δ 1y
24
24-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-10-1
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Camozzi: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Jacoby: 30 sig / 0 TD
Chris Camozzi
Dustin Jacoby
33
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
45
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
98s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Chris Camozzi
24-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
22-10-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—