Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Chris Weidman
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
34
Age
Δ 7y
28
29-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-8
W1
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Weidman: 58 sig / 4 TD
Demian Maia
Chris Weidman
15
Sig strikes landed
22
37
Sig strikes attempted
59
34
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
124s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W3
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
17-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—