Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chael Sonnen
Michael Bisping
48%
52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
30-15-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
31-9
W1
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sonnen: 40 sig / 4 TD ·
Bisping: 30 sig / 1 TD
Chael Sonnen
Michael Bisping
48
Sig strikes landed
41
117
Sig strikes attempted
113
76
Total strikes landed
75
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
270s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chael Sonnen
30-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W4
Michael Bisping
"The Count"
31-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—