Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Nik Lentz
30%
70%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
19-9-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-13-2
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Dunham: 68 sig / 2 TD ·
Lentz: 39 sig / 2 TD
Evan Dunham
Nik Lentz
33
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
86
57
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
6.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Evan Dunham
19-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—