Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
George Roop
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
31-15
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-14-1
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Swanson: 43 sig / 2 TD ·
Roop: 35 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
George Roop
32
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
L1
George Roop
15-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—