Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Phil Davis
42%
58%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
20-8-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-4
W3
Current streak
W5
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Evans: 62 sig / 3 TD ·
Davis: 51 sig / 2 TD
Rashad Evans
Phil Davis
29
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
60
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
4.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
169s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
20-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W5
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—