Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Michihiro Omigawa
95%
5%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
36-10
Career record
Δ 24 pp
18-14-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Omigawa: 24 sig / 1 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Michihiro Omigawa
44
Sig strikes landed
18
83
Sig strikes attempted
54
69
Total strikes landed
35
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
208s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Michihiro Omigawa
18-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—