Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Gonzaga
Ednaldo Oliveira
31%
69%
Why
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gonzaga: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Oliveira: 0 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Gonzaga
Ednaldo Oliveira
26
Sig strikes landed
38
58
Sig strikes attempted
73
38
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
17-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Ednaldo Oliveira
"Lula"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28