Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rousimar Palhares
Mike Massenzio
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
20-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-9
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Palhares: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Massenzio: 0 sig / 0 TD
Rousimar Palhares
Mike Massenzio
25
Sig strikes landed
16
37
Sig strikes attempted
35
47
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
125s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
20-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Mike Massenzio
"The Master of Disaster"
14-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—