Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Erick Silva
Carlo Prater
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Silva: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Prater: 0 sig / 0 TD
Erick Silva
Carlo Prater
31
Sig strikes landed
28
81
Sig strikes attempted
59
38
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
71s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erick Silva
20-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
Carlo Prater
"Neo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31