Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Tavares
Sam Stout
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
21-12-1
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 50 sig / 2 TD ·
Stout: 45 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Tavares
Sam Stout
42
Sig strikes landed
35
107
Sig strikes attempted
109
51
Total strikes landed
60
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
7.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Thiago Tavares
22-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W2
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—