Prelims1
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Chris Cariaso
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Chris Cariaso
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
64"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-8
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mizugaki: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Cariaso: 37 sig / 0 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Chris Cariaso
49
Sig strikes landed
41
127
Sig strikes attempted
96
61
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—