Prelims1
Middleweight
Riki Fukuda vs Steve Cantwell
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Riki Fukuda
Steve Cantwell
80%
20%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
24-10
Career record
Δ 21 pp
7-7
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fukuda: 124 sig / 3 TD ·
Cantwell: 47 sig / 1 TD
Riki Fukuda
Steve Cantwell
41
Sig strikes landed
35
98
Sig strikes attempted
85
69
Total strikes landed
50
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
5.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
237s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Riki Fukuda
24-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
L2
Steve Cantwell
"The Robot"
7-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—