Prelims1
Bantamweight
Norifumi Yamamoto vs Vaughan Lee
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Norifumi Yamamoto
Vaughan Lee
70%
30%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
18-7
Career record
Δ 24 pp
14-14-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Yamamoto: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Lee: 14 sig / 0 TD
Norifumi Yamamoto
Vaughan Lee
25
Sig strikes landed
30
55
Sig strikes attempted
57
49
Total strikes landed
59
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
214s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Norifumi Yamamoto
"Kid"
18-7
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Vaughan Lee
14-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—