Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Hatsu Hioki
Bart Palaszewski
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
30-10-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
37-17
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hioki: 67 sig / 2 TD ·
Palaszewski: 26 sig / 0 TD
Hatsu Hioki
Bart Palaszewski
22
Sig strikes landed
19
59
Sig strikes attempted
71
36
Total strikes landed
32
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
152s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hatsu Hioki
30-10-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Bart Palaszewski
"Bartimus"
37-17
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—