Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yushin Okami
Tim Boetsch
85%
15%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
34-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-13
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Okami: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Boetsch: 42 sig / 0 TD
Yushin Okami
Tim Boetsch
25
Sig strikes landed
26
70
Sig strikes attempted
58
43
Total strikes landed
43
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
193s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Yushin Okami
"Thunder"
34-13
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
W2
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—