Main
Welterweight
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Jake Shields
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Jake Shields
23%
77%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
14-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
31-10-1
L3
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Akiyama: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Shields: 91 sig / 2 TD
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Jake Shields
34
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
124
55
Total strikes landed
66
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
154s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Yoshihiro Akiyama
14-7
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L2
Jake Shields
31-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—