Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Cheick Kongo
13%
87%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 10"
82"
38
Age
Δ 1y
37
14-14-1
Career record
Δ 22 pp
28-10-2
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hunt: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Kongo: 5 sig / 0 TD
Mark Hunt
Cheick Kongo
15
Sig strikes landed
37
40
Sig strikes attempted
68
28
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
W2
Cheick Kongo
28-10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
D
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—