Main
Light Heavyweight
Quinton Jackson vs Ryan Bader
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Quinton Jackson
Ryan Bader
63%
37%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
37-13
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-5
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jackson: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Bader: 55 sig / 4 TD
Quinton Jackson
Ryan Bader
21
Sig strikes landed
30
54
Sig strikes attempted
69
28
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Quinton Jackson
"Rampage"
37-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—