🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Frankie Edgar vs Benson Henderson
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Benson Henderson
42%
58%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-7
W1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Edgar: 68 sig / 5 TD ·
Henderson: 87 sig / 1 TD
Frankie Edgar
Benson Henderson
48
Sig strikes landed
66
157
Sig strikes attempted
180
74
Total strikes landed
89
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
6.7
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 4
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
D
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
W3
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—