Back to UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
Prelims1 Featherweight

Daniel Pineda vs Pat Schilling

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Daniel Pineda
Pat Schilling
70% 30%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pineda: 19 sig / 1 TD · Schilling: 4 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Pineda
Pat Schilling
40
Sig strikes landed
32
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
56
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Daniel Pineda

"The Pit"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Pat Schilling

"Thrilling"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23