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Fabricio Camoes vs Tommy Hayden

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Fabricio Camoes
Tommy Hayden
38% 62%
Why
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Camoes: 6 sig / 1 TD · Hayden: 7 sig / 2 TD
Fabricio Camoes
Tommy Hayden
20
Sig strikes landed
30
38
Sig strikes attempted
48
34
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
32%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Fabricio Camoes

"Morango"
14-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner

Tommy Hayden

"Wild Card"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26