Prelims1
Bantamweight
Joseph Sandoval vs Nick Denis
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joseph Sandoval
Nick Denis
41%
59%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sandoval: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Denis: 11 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Sandoval
Nick Denis
43
Sig strikes landed
41
100
Sig strikes attempted
75
44
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Sandoval
7-8
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
Nick Denis
"The Ninja of Love"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28