Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jorge Rivera
Eric Schafer
63%
37%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
40
Age
Δ 6y
34
20-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-9-2
L2
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rivera: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Schafer: 6 sig / 2 TD
Jorge Rivera
Eric Schafer
33
Sig strikes landed
29
82
Sig strikes attempted
66
51
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jorge Rivera
"El Conquistador"
20-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L2
Eric Schafer
"Red"
14-9-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—