Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Barry
Christian Morecraft
30%
70%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
8-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
8-4
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barry: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Morecraft: 3 sig / 2 TD
Pat Barry
Christian Morecraft
28
Sig strikes landed
32
36
Sig strikes attempted
83
37
Total strikes landed
61
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
46s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Pat Barry
"HD"
8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L1
Christian Morecraft
8-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—