Back to UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
Prelims1 Lightweight

Kamal Shalorus vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller ·Bridgestone Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kamal Shalorus
Khabib Nurmagomedov
4% 96%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
39
Age
Δ 16y
23
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Shalorus: 13 sig / 0 TD · Nurmagomedov: 35 sig / 3 TD
Kamal Shalorus
Khabib Nurmagomedov
31
Sig strikes landed
53
108
Sig strikes attempted
102
42
Total strikes landed
101
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.80
99s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kamal Shalorus

"Prince of Persia"
9-6-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner

Khabib Nurmagomedov

"The Eagle"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23