Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mike Easton
Jared Papazian
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Easton: 85 sig / 1 TD ·
Papazian: 68 sig / 0 TD
Mike Easton
Jared Papazian
34
Sig strikes landed
39
89
Sig strikes attempted
90
43
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
110s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Easton
"The Hulk"
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
Jared Papazian
"The Jackhammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24