Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Duane Ludwig
Josh Neer
19%
81%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
22-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
37-16-1
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ludwig: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Neer: 5 sig / 1 TD
Duane Ludwig
Josh Neer
65
Sig strikes landed
93
161
Sig strikes attempted
196
79
Total strikes landed
103
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
139s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
22-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
37-16-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—