Prelims1
Welterweight
Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel Roberts
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
·Bridgestone Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Charlie Brenneman
Daniel Roberts
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brenneman: 24 sig / 2 TD ·
Roberts: 3 sig / 0 TD
Charlie Brenneman
Daniel Roberts
22
Sig strikes landed
15
45
Sig strikes attempted
47
50
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
291s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
19-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
Blue corner
L2
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—