Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Satoru Kitaoka
90%
10%
Why
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
40-7
Career record
Δ 21 pp
41-14-9
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aoki: 27 sig / 6 TD ·
Kitaoka: 18 sig / 0 TD
Shinya Aoki
Satoru Kitaoka
24
Sig strikes landed
17
82
Sig strikes attempted
71
29
Total strikes landed
23
1.4
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
40-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
DREAM 17
—
W
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
W1
Satoru Kitaoka
41-14-9
Career record
Height
66"
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 17
—