Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fedor Emelianenko
Satoshi Ishii
88%
12%
Why
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Emelianenko: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Ishii: 3 sig / 0 TD
Fedor Emelianenko
Satoshi Ishii
30
Sig strikes landed
26
58
Sig strikes attempted
67
55
Total strikes landed
37
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
204s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Fedor Emelianenko
"The Last Emperor"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
W2
Satoshi Ishii
16-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 16
—