Back to DREAM - New Year! 2011
Welterweight

Hayato Sakurai vs Ryo Chonan

DREAM - New Year! 2011 ·Saitama Super Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Hayato Sakurai
Ryo Chonan
82% 18%
Why
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
38-14-2
Career record
Δ 6 pp
23-13
L2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sakurai: 51 sig / 2 TD · Chonan: 38 sig / 0 TD
Hayato Sakurai
Ryo Chonan
24
Sig strikes landed
32
73
Sig strikes attempted
79
29
Total strikes landed
46
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
109s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Hayato Sakurai

"Mach"
38-14-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L Dynamite!! 2010
—
L DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
W1

Ryo Chonan

"Piranah"
23-13
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W DREAM 13
—