Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bibiano Fernandes
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
80%
20%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
21-3
Career record
Δ 17 pp
24-9-1
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Fernandes: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Diniz: 13 sig / 0 TD
Bibiano Fernandes
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
33
Sig strikes landed
29
112
Sig strikes attempted
121
54
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
120s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bibiano Fernandes
21-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
DREAM 17
—
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 13
—
Blue corner
W1
Rodolfo Marques Diniz
24-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DREAM 17
—