Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Kazuyuki Miyata
91%
9%
Why
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
37-11-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-10
W3
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kawajiri: 7 sig / 3 TD ·
Miyata: 5 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Kazuyuki Miyata
34
Sig strikes landed
25
87
Sig strikes attempted
64
39
Total strikes landed
39
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
DREAM 17
—
W
DREAM - Japan GP Final
—
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
L1
Kazuyuki Miyata
15-10
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
DREAM - Japan GP Final
—
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 14
—