Main
Light Heavyweight
Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vladimir Matyushenko
Alexander Gustafsson
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
41
Age
Δ 16y
25
28-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-8
W2
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Matyushenko: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Gustafsson: 10 sig / 0 TD
Vladimir Matyushenko
Alexander Gustafsson
21
Sig strikes landed
14
32
Sig strikes attempted
47
26
Total strikes landed
27
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
59s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Vladimir Matyushenko
"The Janitor"
28-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W3
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 112: Invincible
—