Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Fitch
Johny Hendricks
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
69"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
30-7-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-8
D1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Fitch: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Hendricks: 2 sig / 0 TD
Jon Fitch
Johny Hendricks
26
Sig strikes landed
18
51
Sig strikes attempted
39
58
Total strikes landed
41
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Jon Fitch
30-7-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
D
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W2
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—