Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Donald Cerrone
39%
61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
23-13
Career record
Δ 5 pp
37-17
W1
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Diaz: 238 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 96 sig / 0 TD
Nate Diaz
Donald Cerrone
59
Sig strikes landed
57
135
Sig strikes attempted
125
69
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
90s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W4
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—