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Main Heavyweight

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brock Lesnar
Alistair Overeem
9% 91%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
34
Age
Δ 3y
32
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lesnar: 6 sig / 0 TD · Overeem: 19 sig / 0 TD
Brock Lesnar
Alistair Overeem
16
Sig strikes landed
33
49
Sig strikes attempted
55
36
Total strikes landed
67
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Brock Lesnar

5-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner

Alistair Overeem

"The Demolition Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32