Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fernando Gonzalez
Eddie Mendez
87%
13%
Why
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Fernando Gonzalez
Eddie Mendez
44
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
102
63
Total strikes landed
55
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Fernando Gonzalez
"The Menifee Maniac"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Eddie Mendez
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
28