Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Herman Terrado
Chris Brown
83%
17%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Herman Terrado
Chris Brown
48
Sig strikes landed
42
107
Sig strikes attempted
100
68
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Herman Terrado
16-3-1
Career record
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
Blue corner
Chris Brown
0-0
Career record