Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Billy Evangelista
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
13-10
Career record
Δ 20 pp
13-4
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Noons: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Evangelista: 71 sig / 1 TD
KJ Noons
Billy Evangelista
47
Sig strikes landed
44
131
Sig strikes attempted
116
63
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
98s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
KJ Noons
"King"
13-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce - Houston
—
W
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
L1
Billy Evangelista
13-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—