Back to Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masvidal
Light Heavyweight

Gegard Mousasi vs Ovince Saint Preux

Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masvidal ·Pechanga Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Ovince Saint Preux
94% 6%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
26
Age
Δ 2y
29
42-6-3
Career record
Δ 21 pp
28-18
D1
Current streak
W5
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mousasi: 39 sig / 4 TD · Saint Preux: 13 sig / 2 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Ovince Saint Preux
30
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
94
41
Total strikes landed
46
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
171s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Gegard Mousasi

42-6-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
D Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
L Strikeforce - Nashville
—
Blue corner
W5

Ovince Saint Preux

28-18
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
W Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
W Strikeforce Challengers 12
—
W Strikeforce - Nashville
—