Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Walel Watson
Yves Jabouin
64%
36%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
68"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
15-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-11
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Watson: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Jabouin: 33 sig / 2 TD
Walel Watson
Yves Jabouin
29
Sig strikes landed
25
92
Sig strikes attempted
110
33
Total strikes landed
30
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Walel Watson
"The Gazelle"
15-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
Blue corner
W1
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
21-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—