Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Bocek
Nik Lentz
28%
72%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
68"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
12-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
30-12-2
L1
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bocek: 46 sig / 5 TD ·
Lentz: 10 sig / 0 TD
Mark Bocek
Nik Lentz
22
Sig strikes landed
37
61
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
65
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
235s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mark Bocek
12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W4
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—