Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tito Ortiz
Rogerio Nogueira
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
37
Age
Δ 1y
36
19-13-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ortiz: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Nogueira: 54 sig / 0 TD
Tito Ortiz
Rogerio Nogueira
26
Sig strikes landed
30
65
Sig strikes attempted
74
41
Total strikes landed
40
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tito Ortiz
"The People's Champ"
19-13-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L2
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—