Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
28%
72%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
36
19-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
35-10-1
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mir: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Nogueira: 21 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
25
Sig strikes landed
19
50
Sig strikes attempted
49
38
Total strikes landed
35
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
118s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Frank Mir
19-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
35-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—